Valuation record

Fair value today

$165

-51% versus the dated market price

10-year projected price

$334

Undiscounted horizon value · 2036-08-18

10-year terminal wealth

$334

Horizon price plus distributions reinvested at 0% (None)

Expected-terminal-wealth CAGR

-0.1%

Total return · CAGR of the probability-weighted terminal wealth · drives the decision zone

Mean scenario CAGR

-4.7%

Total return · probability-weighted average of scenario CAGRs

Price-only CAGR

-0.1%

Distributions excluded · mean scenario -4.7%

Current market price

$337

As of 2026-08-18 · accessed 2026-08-18 · stockanalysis.com TSLA close 2026-08-18 16:00 EDT (cross-checked against a $1.33T market capitalisation on 3.95B shares) (Third Party, High confidence)

Model record

tsla-2026-08-18-001

Valuation date 2026-08-18 · immutable

Decision zones are measured on total return. Expected-terminal-wealth CAGR and mean scenario CAGR answer different questions and are intentionally displayed separately; neither is a simulation median. The price-only figure is shown for comparison and never drives a decision.

No reconciled engine-to-enterprise-to-equity bridge is attached.

The market-implied operating requirements are not attached.

No reproducible simulation summary is attached to this run.

The four required dilution channels are not attached.

The raw valuation zone, comparable opportunity set, and portfolio-adjusted action are not attached. No owner decision is inferred.

No committee seat has recorded a position on this valuation run.

No load-bearing monitoring and falsification rules are attached.

• Autonomy / robotaxi: state probabilities unapproved

  3 of this engine's states carry no owner-approved probability (no commercial launch, constrained commercial operation, scaled commercial operation), so each state is shown at its own value and none is weighted. No expected value, fair value, expected return or capital signal follows from these figures, and only the Founder can approve the probabilities that would license one.

  probability-approval

• Optimus: state probabilities unapproved

  3 of this engine's states carry no owner-approved probability (no commercial launch, constrained commercial operation, scaled commercial operation), so each state is shown at its own value and none is weighted. No expected value, fair value, expected return or capital signal follows from these figures, and only the Founder can approve the probabilities that would license one.

  probability-approval

• 17 disclosures outstanding

  Every material Robotaxi and Optimus input is bound to a disclosure that has not yet been made. Until each is disclosed the input stays owner-thesis or unresolved, and management capacity claims are not reclassified as realised economics.

  disclosure

• base: terminal value carries 116.1% of the total

  The explicit period consumes cash, so the entire value rests on the terminal assumption and on capital that has not yet been raised.

  terminal-dominance

• bull: terminal value carries 134.8% of the total

  The explicit period consumes cash, so the entire value rests on the terminal assumption and on capital that has not yet been raised.

  terminal-dominance

• exceptional: terminal value carries 130.9% of the total

  The explicit period consumes cash, so the entire value rests on the terminal assumption and on capital that has not yet been raised.

  terminal-dominance

• Index hurdle unconfigured

  indexHurdleCagr remains 0 and is treated as unconfigured. No output here claims to beat an index, clear a hurdle, enter a decision zone, or support capital allocation.

  index-hurdle

• No per-share value

  Issue 211 forbids a generic 2%-5% annual dilution assumption and requires outstanding equity claims to be reconciled in the equity bridge. TSLA-HVE-005 remains awaiting-owner-input, so enterprise value is reported and per-share value is not derived.

  per-share

• Not promotable to the canonical run

  No state probability carries Founder approval, so no expected value, fair value, expected CAGR or capital signal is produced. · The world cash parameters — capital intensity, terminal ROIC, terminal growth, corporate cost rate — are Laray assumptions and carry no owner approval. · TSLA-HVE-003 and TSLA-HVE-006 drivers remain unapproved research input. · The index hurdle is unconfigured. · Per-share value requires an equity bridge that is still awaiting owner input.

  canonical-promotion

• Quarterly vehicle deliveries and automotive revenue, from which revenue per delivered vehicle is derived.

  Quarterly production and delivery release · warning at Deliveries below the bear world's implied path for four consecutive quarters. · falsified at Trailing-twelve-month deliveries below 1.5 million, or revenue per vehicle below $30,000.

  Resets automotive-units and automotive-asp to the disclosed figures and re-runs every world.

  automotive-delivery-disclosure · automotive

• Quarterly energy storage deployed in GWh and energy segment revenue.

  Quarterly production and delivery release · warning at Deployment growth below 20% year over year for four consecutive quarters. · falsified at Revenue per GWh below $110M, which is beneath every world's endpoint.

  Resets energy-gigawatt-hours and energy-revenue-per-gigawatt-hour from disclosure.

  energy-deployment-disclosure · energy

• Segment operating margin, or gross margin plus an allocation basis sufficient to derive it.

  Annual, 10-K segment note · warning at Group operating margin below 5% for four consecutive quarters. · falsified at Disclosed segment operating margin more than 5 points below the world's 2036 endpoint on the same revenue base.

  Resets automotive-operating-margin, energy-operating-margin and corporate-cost-rate, which together set the profit every world converts to cash.

  segment-operating-margin-disclosure · group

• Capex against incremental annual revenue, from the cash flow statement and segment revenue.

  Quarterly · warning at Above $1.30 of capex per dollar of incremental annual revenue on a trailing-twelve-month basis. · falsified at Above $1.60, at which no world's growth path funds itself from operations.

  Resets capital-intensity. This is the driver that decides whether a growth world is affordable at all.

  capital-intensity-disclosure · group

• The revenue split between Automotive, Energy, and Services and Other.

  Quarterly, income statement disaggregation · warning at Services and Other above 12% of total revenue, materially shrinking the automotive base. · falsified at Any disclosed split more than $1B per quarter from the estimate this model carries.

  Resets TESLA_BASE_YEAR_SERVICES_AND_OTHER_QUARTERLY, which is currently an unresolved unknown and sets the automotive ramp's starting point.

  services-and-other-split · group

• Paid unsupervised Robotaxi revenue reported as a separately identifiable figure.

  Quarterly shareholder update or 10-Q, from FY2027 · warning at No separate line by FY2028 Q4. · falsified at No separate line by FY2030 Q4.

  Hold every Robotaxi driver at owner-thesis-input. On falsification, set the scaled state's launch year to null.

  robotaxi-paid-revenue-disclosed · autonomy-robotaxi

• A regulator granting unsupervised commercial operation in a named jurisdiction with no safety driver.

  Event-driven · warning at No named jurisdiction authorised by FY2028. · falsified at No named jurisdiction authorised by FY2031.

  Without authorisation the constrained and scaled states cannot be entered at all.

  robotaxi-regulatory-authorisation · autonomy-robotaxi

• A fleet denominator for the cumulative paid Robotaxi miles graph: active commercial fleet, or paid miles per vehicle.

  Quarterly, alongside the existing cumulative-miles graph · warning at Cumulative miles continue to be published with no denominator for four further quarters. · falsified at Denominator disclosed and implied miles per vehicle below 15,000 per year.

  annualPaidMilesPerVehicle is the driver this settles. The Q2 2026 update does disclose cumulative paid miles; it discloses no denominator, so utilisation stays owner-thesis-input.

  robotaxi-paid-miles-denominator · autonomy-robotaxi

• Fare or revenue per paid mile, and Tesla's retained economics on it.

  Quarterly once paid revenue is separately reported · warning at Implied revenue per mile below $0.70. · falsified at Implied Tesla take below 35%.

  Reset grossFarePerMile and teslaTakeRate to the disclosed figures and re-run every state.

  robotaxi-fare-and-take · autonomy-robotaxi

• Deployed capital per commercial vehicle, and replacement cadence.

  Annual, 10-K property and equipment detail · warning at Above $45,000 deployed capital per vehicle. · falsified at Above $50,000 per vehicle, or replacement life below three years.

  Invalidates vehicleCapexPerVehicle and blocks the capital bridge for the scaled state.

  robotaxi-fleet-capital · autonomy-robotaxi

• Contribution margin, or operating cost reconstructable from disclosure.

  Quarterly once paid revenue is separately reported · warning at Tesla-borne operating cost above $0.25 per mile. · falsified at Tesla-borne operating cost above the retained fare per mile.

  Sets operatingCostPerMile from disclosure rather than assumption.

  robotaxi-contribution-margin · autonomy-robotaxi

• Paid external units and the revenue from them, split from internal deployments.

  Annual, from first external delivery · warning at No external units disclosed by FY2029. · falsified at No external units disclosed by FY2032.

  Tesla's own filing states it has yet to commercialise Bots and cannot predict demand. Until that disclosure changes, annualExternalUnits stays owner-thesis-input and the failure state stands.

  optimus-external-units-and-revenue · optimus

• Realised average selling price on external units.

  Annual · warning at Below $25,000. · falsified at Below $20,000, which is the low endpoint of the modelled range.

  Resets realisedAveragePrice and re-runs the scaled and constrained states.

  optimus-realised-price · optimus

• Manufacturing cost or gross margin on external units.

  Annual · warning at Gross margin below 20%. · falsified at Gross margin below the research-and-support rate, so the engine cannot reach positive EBIT.

  Resets manufacturingGrossMargin; a falsified margin collapses the scaled state to the constrained state.

  optimus-manufacturing-margin · optimus

• Service attach rate and service revenue per installed unit.

  Annual once an installed base exists · warning at Attach below 30%. · falsified at No service revenue disclosed three years after first external delivery.

  Sets serviceAttachRate and annualServiceRevenuePerInstalledUnit to zero.

  optimus-service-attach · optimus

• Factory and tooling capital committed per unit of annual production capacity.

  Annual, 10-K property and equipment detail · warning at Above $12,000 per annual unit of capacity. · falsified at Above $20,000 per annual unit of capacity.

  Resets factoryCapexPerAnnualUnit, which is the driver the scaled state's cash burn turns on.

  optimus-factory-capital · optimus

• Disclosed productivity evidence for internal deployments.

  Annual · warning at Productivity claimed without a disclosed measurement basis. · falsified at A disclosed productivity benefit already reflected in automotive or energy operating margin.

  On falsification the benefit is held in the engine margin that already contains it and is not also valued as Optimus revenue.

  optimus-internal-productivity-evidence · optimus

1. Approve or replace the world cash parameters, above all capital intensity and terminal ROIC, which together decide most of the observable value.
2. Approve or replace the Robotaxi addressable paid-mile denominator and Tesla's demand share, which is what the demand cap turns on.
3. Approve state probabilities for Robotaxi and Optimus, or decline to, in which case the states stand alone as they do here.
4. Set the index hurdle.